Gimbal = rotating-glare analysis (Mick West).
documentedanalysisScientific Instrumentation & Sensor Data
Skeptical model: the Gimbal 'rotation' is IR glare from a distant tail-on jet seen through the ATFLIR's gimbal/derotation optics; blob roll correlates with aircraft roll/derotation, not physical spin.
Mick West (Metabunk) argues the dramatic Gimbal 'flop' is an optical artifact: a bright IR source (likely a conventional jet's exhaust ~30 nm away, viewed tail-on) produces asymmetric glare whose apparent orientation tracks the pod's derotation as the F-18 banks. Roll-tracking by a contributor showed the blob's major-axis rotation correlates with aircraft roll rather than behaving like a physical object's shape under roll. Honest caveat: it explains only the rotation, not radar/fleet context, and ATFLIR derotation specifics are not fully public - Metabunk frames it as a strong, unrefuted hypothesis, not a closed case. A competing arXiv reconstruction (2023) argues closer-range geometries could fit pilot testimony of an abrupt reversal.